By Mathew Goldstein
A recent study by political science professor Jeffery J. Mondak and graduate student Matthew Mettler at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign [Mettler, M., & Mondak, J. J. (2024). Fact-opinion differentiation. Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review. https://doi.org/10.37016/mr-2020-136] found that almost half of the people quizzed on 12 statements about current events failed to correctly identify which statements were factual and which were opinion. For respondents who were no more accurate overall in categorizing the questions than a coin toss, the failures were not random. Instead, the failures were positively correlated with the respondents partisan orientation for both Democratic and Republican respondents.
Facts that were unfavorable to the partisan orientation of the respondent were more often mis-categorized as opinion while opinions favorable to the partisan orientation of the respondent were more often mis-categorized as fact. Republicans exhibited a larger partisan bias when mis-categorizing the questions than Democrats. A confounding factor is that factual statements which are false are likely to be mis-categorized as being opinion. A false factual statement was included to measure that tendency. The study did not include any statements that qualify as assumptions (speculation on a future fact). For more information see Study: Americans struggle to distinguish factual claims from opinions amid partisan bias.
