Showing posts with label bond yields. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bond yields. Show all posts

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Chicago/Conservative Views of Economics

by Don Wharton                 
Milton Friedman
Economic theories are to a great extent ethical claims. They assert that shared outcomes will be better if we engage in certain policies of governance, taxation and fiscal policy. The outcomes for people living under those laws will be vastly different depending upon which theories and which laws we adopt. Economics is asserted to be a science and in theory we should be able to compare the theoretical claims with the empirical data.

Milton Friedman was one of the central figures creating the conservative Chicago school of economics. A prime feature of this variety of economics is a belief in largely unrestricted free markets. This can be very effective in increasing or decreasing commodities, manufactured goods and services in response to changes in relative demand by our society. If there is a shortage of corn the price will rise. There will then be more land, labor, fertilizer and machinery allocated to corn production, satisfying the demand.

Friedman wanted an extremely minimal government and disliked things such as permits and licenses as a matter of almost quasi-religious belief. He was opposed to licensing medical doctors. Of course, this would have opened up the market for medical services to a vast variety of medical fraud and quackery. To be fair, there are laws against fraud and in principle Friedman would argue that these laws would limit misbehavior.

Alan Greenspan was a supporter of Friedman's views. He saw no problem with the proliferation of sub prime, low documentation loans for real estate or the slicing and dicing of bundled mortgages to finance the recent housing bubble. This fraud was endorsed by rating agencies that seemed willing to give AAA ratings to repackaged mortgage instruments sold to credulous buyers. The ratings agencies were in effect bribed by the financial institutions that were requesting the ratings. Once again laws against fraud in theory apply. A few people have been prosecuted under such laws but only a very tiny percentage of the army of people who built the housing bubble that destroyed many trillions in American assets. The fear of prosecution was almost totally absent during the building of the housing bubble. The very minimal current levels of prosecution suggests there would be no fear of consequences when future markets become similarly disconnected from reality.